Why I Am Still Single: Using the Drake Equation to Find Love in Orange County

Just this week, we talked about how the the Daily Beast had surveyed America's 104 largest cities to find the best and worst places to find a mate. Topping the list of America's best cities? Long Beach, Anaheim and Santa Ana. To that I say, LIES! As a lifelong resident of Anaheim–and frequenter of both Santa Ana and Long Beach–I find it hard to believe that I'm directly in the eye of the perfect mating storm. And honestly if there were an ounce of truth to this survey, why is it that so many of us OCers remain single and mateless this Valentine's day?

Click the image to enlarge, with the full, nerdy mathematical explanation after the jump!

We started with the entire population of California and whittled them down to the 3,219 people in California that match the most basic criteria for being my mate: male, live in OC, 25-34, non-Republican and physically attractive.

That's 0.0009% of all Californians and only 0.1% of all Orange Countians. On any given night in OC, there is a one in 1,000 chance that I will meet an attractive man between the ages of 25 and 34 with similar political views.

Of course, this does not take into account the fraction of these men that will find me attractive, the fraction who are single and–most importantly–the fraction who I will actually get along with.

Assuming one in 20 of the eligible men find me attractive, half are single, and I get along with one in 10, that brings my grand total of potential mates to 8. On any given night out in OC, there is a 0.0000026% chance of meeting one of these potential matches. That's a one in 384,000 chance.

Slightly better chances than getting struck by lightning, slightly worse than my chances of than death by alligator, but just about the same as my chances of dying from choking on food… which is what I might resort to if I continue being single.

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