Website Predicts When Next Earthquake Will Hit

Open Hazards is a group of scientists, technologists, and business
people dedicated to the proposition that, through advances in
forecasting and sensor technology, as well as an open, web-based
approach to public information availability and sharing, we can enable
a more sustainable human society in the face of severe, recurring
natural disasters.”

In other words, the geniuses–who
apparently include reputable and well-known seismologists– behind forecast earthquakes anywhere in the world . . .

. . . including, gulp, Orange County.


On the first page of the site is a form where you can type in
your location and how far in advance–from one week to 5 years, with
several intervals in between–you want to know the chances there will
be an earthquake that registers 5.0 or greater on the Richter Scale.

Sitting in the 92626 ZIP Code, that's what I just punched in. Here's what I was told:

* There's 3.20 percent chance of a 5.0 or greater quake within 50 miles of 92626 (the north Costa Mesa area) in the next month.
* There's a 32 percent chance in the next year.
* There's an 86 percent chance in the next 5 years.


Change the setting to quakes within 25 miles of 92626, and the odds improve (of not getting shaken, not the other way around).

* There's at 0.36 percent chance of a quake 5.0 or greater within 25 miles of 92626 in the next month.
* There's a 4.3 percent chance in the next year.
* There's a 20 percent chance in the next 5 years.

And there's a 100 percent chance predictin' scares the bejesus outta me!

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