Dana Watch: Poll Dance

Illustration by Bob Aul

Last week, we told you about Democrats in the 48th Congressional District race raising more money than 30-year incumbent Representative Dana Rohrabacher (R-Putin’s Serta Perfect Sleeper). Now, a statewide poll shows strong disapproval of the job President Donald Trump is doing is affecting the same contest in Dems’ favor.

Despite a Republican voter-registration edge, more than half of likely voters in the 48th disapprove of the president, according to the poll conducted in mid-January by the highly respected UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS). You’ll recall the same district favored Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

The new poll found that just 38 percent of likely voters in the 48th approve of Rohrabacher’s job performance compared to 50 percent who disapprove, including 38 percent who disapprove strongly. Among likely voters, 51 percent are not inclined to vote for Rohrabacher, 41 percent would back him and 8 percent are undecided. The opposition to him is spread among voters in every age group.

Broken down by political party, 90 percent of likely Democratic voters would not choose Rohrabacher. His support among Democrats is at an anemic 4 percent, with 6 percent undecided.

The incumbent is still supported by 73 percent of Republicans in his district, with 16 percent opposed and 11 percent undecided. What should be troubling, especially in an open-primary election, in which the top two vote-getters of any party advance to the November ballot, is 61 percent of non-partisans would not vote for him, only 30 percent would and 9 percent are undecided.

Among male voters, yes for Rohrabacher edges no 47 percent to 46 percent. However, with 7 percent undecided, the potential remains for a negative swing. For female voters, who are no doubt the most incensed by what’s coming out of the pussy-grabber White House, 55 percent would not vote for Rohrabacher, only 34 percent would and 11 percent are undecided. Yikes!

Democratic Congressional Committee spokesman Drew Godinich credited the poor poll showing to Rohrabacher stances that would “rip immigrant families apart and threaten to kick millions off their health care.”

On the latter issue, the IGS poll found a plurality of voters in the 48th were not happy about Rohrabacher’s stance on health care, with 48 percent saying his vote in favor of repealing and replacing Obamacare made them less likely to re-elect him and 43 percent saying it made them more likely to vote for him.

“Trailing in fundraising and in the polls,” Godinich says, “it appears the chickens have come home to roost.”

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