Do we have real congressional election contests in the Orange County/Long Beach area or, despite all the hullabaloo, is the whole affair preordained?
Data from
The New York Times, based on FiveThirtyEight Forecasts, shows the answer isn't necessarily uplifting.
In 100,000 computer simulations, they're making the following predictions for the November 2 general election:
]
–Incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has a 99.8% chance of beating challenger Ken Arnold.
–Incumbent Ed Royce has a 99.9% chance of beating challenger Christina Avalos.
–Incumbent Gary Miller has a 99.8% chance of beating challenger Michael Williamson.
–Incumbent Ken Calvert has a 98.6% chance of beating challenger Bill Hedrick.
–Incumbent Darrell Issa has a 100% chance of beating challenger Howard Katz.
–Incumbent Loretta Sanchez has an 88.3% chance (this is down from 95% just two weeks ago) of beating challenger Van Tran.
–Incumbent John Campbell has a 99.5% chance of beating challenger Beth Krom.
In California's U.S. Senate race, they give incumbent Barbara Boxer an 84% chance of beating Carly Fiorina; and Jerry Brown an 89.9 chance of beating Meg Whitman in the state's open seat governor's race.
–R. Scott Moxley / OC Weekly
CNN-featured investigative reporter R. Scott Moxley has won Journalist of the Year honors at the Los Angeles Press Club; been named Distinguished Journalist of the Year by the LA Society of Professional Journalists; obtained one of the last exclusive prison interviews with Charles Manson disciple Susan Atkins; won inclusion in Jeffrey Toobin’s The Best American Crime Reporting for his coverage of a white supremacist’s senseless murder of a beloved Vietnamese refugee; launched multi-year probes that resulted in the FBI arrests and convictions of the top three ranking members of the Orange County Sheriff’s Department; and gained praise from New York Times Magazine writers for his “herculean job” exposing entrenched Southern California law enforcement corruption.