Tuesday, October 26, 2010 |
5 years ago
Ed Royce: Shoo-in elections are fun.
Do we have real congressional election contests in the Orange County/Long Beach area or, despite all the hullabaloo, is the whole affair preordained?
Data from The New York Times
, based on FiveThirtyEight Forecasts, shows the answer isn't necessarily uplifting.
In 100,000 computer simulations, they're making the following predictions for the November 2 general election:
--Incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has a 99.8% chance of beating challenger Ken Arnold.
--Incumbent Ed Royce has a 99.9% chance of beating challenger Christina Avalos.
--Incumbent Gary Miller has a 99.8% chance of beating challenger Michael Williamson.
--Incumbent Ken Calvert has a 98.6% chance of beating challenger Bill Hedrick.
--Incumbent Darrell Issa has a 100% chance of beating challenger Howard Katz.
Issa: Everybody loves me!
--Incumbent Loretta Sanchez has an 88.3% chance (this is down from 95% just two weeks ago) of beating challenger Van Tran.
--Incumbent John Campbell has a 99.5% chance of beating challenger Beth Krom.
In California's U.S. Senate race, they give incumbent Barbara Boxer an 84% chance of beating Carly Fiorina; and Jerry Brown an 89.9 chance of beating Meg Whitman in the state's open seat governor's race.
--R. Scott Moxley / OC Weekly