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Miron’s estimate is generally in line with figures compiled by pot-advocacy organizations, although getting firm numbers is notoriously difficult given the vastly different ways in which law-enforcement agencies catalog arrests and report marijuana data.
Jon Gettman, a former NORML president who operates a public databank at drugscience.org, claims legalizing marijuana would enrich the public by $42 billion per year. In breaking down that sum, Gettman puts the current cost of legal enforcement at nearly $11 billion. He also claims that federal, state and local governments lose out on $31 billion annually in taxes and charges that could be gleaned from the massive industry, based on an overall estimate of a marijuana trade that totals $113 billion per year.
Mirken concedes that squishy numbers invite attacks from critics. But, he adds, “No doubt it’s a big hunk of money.”
Watching that money flow to criminals and cartel bosses has added impetus to the push for change.
Pro-marijuana forces, well-financed and increasingly centralized in New York and Washington, D.C., are often directly involved in helping to craft reform legislation because of their deep knowledge about a subject murky to many in power. The New York–based Drug Policy Alliance, for example, employs 45 people and operates satellite offices in Washington, D.C., and in the states of New Mexico and California. Its annual budget of $8 million comes in part from George Soros’ Open Policy Institute and also from about 25,000 small donors and a number of very wealthy businessmen, most notably tech guru John Gilmore of Cygnus Solutions, Peter B. Lewis of Progressive Insurance, John Glen Sperling of the University of Phoenix and George Zimmer of the Men’s Wearhouse.
Nadelmann, the 52-year-old top executive, says he spends about half of his time on the road, engaging in debates, giving speeches, and conferring with pot advocates to draft voter initiatives and to map out strategies. Close contact with local groups enables him to marshal resources where they are needed and also to bring hot spots to nationwide media attention. Nadelmann can rattle off lists of issues and locales—the drive that brought medical pot this year to Maine; the statewide decriminalization approved in Massachusetts; the ballot tussles ahead in Arizona, Nevada and Oregon. He claims significant credit for Proposition 215, California’s landmark 1996 ballot measure that authorized medical cannabis.
“The 215 campaign was being run by local activists,” Nadelmann says. “I got involved, put together major funders and campaign managers, and turned it into a professional campaign and won that thing.”
As advocates step up the pressure, public opinions are shifting. The Gallup Poll showed 23 percent support for legalization in 1983. This year, the finding was 44 percent, with more than half of the voters in California in favor.
The number of highly placed government officials and jurists who have joined the public call for marijuana reform would have been hard to imagine even a decade ago. One example is retired Orange County Superior Court Judge James P. Gray, author of the 2001 book Why Our Drug Laws Have Failed and What We Can Do About It. Gray argues that drug prohibitions are a “golden goose” for terrorist organizations, a view that has gained traction with the public. A onetime Republican U.S. Senate candidate—and a conservative one to boot—he says of our nation’s drug policy: “We couldn’t do worse if we tried.”
“I’ve been doing this [arguing for marijuana legalization] for 17 years,” Gray tells the Weekly. “Most of that time I felt like I was running into the wind. Now, there’s wind at my back. People who once thought I was a nut are finally realizing that the way we treat drugs in our society is not working. I can get a standing ovation at the ACLU or from the Young Republicans. That says something.”
“We truly are seeing the most rapid gains in public support for making marijuana legal that I’ve ever seen,” Nadelmann says. “It really feels like a new age.”
While activists know there may be a limited time to seize the chance offered by today’s market conditions and Obama’s laissez-faire policies, they are also buoyed by fundamental changes going on in America. The biggest of these is irreversible—the supplanting of hard-line ideologues with Baby Boomers weaned on Woodstock and flower power.
“A whole generation didn’t know the difference between heroin and marijuana,” Nadelmann says. “That generation is mostly dying off. [In its place] are tens of millions of parents and middle-aged people who smoked marijuana and didn’t become drug addicts.”
On the contrary, they now fill elected seats and boardrooms. California Assemblyman Tom Ammiano (D–San Francisco) epitomizes that new type of leader. A former standup comic, Ammiano spent part of the 1960s among the hippies of Haight-Ashbury, grooving to the Grateful Dead. Now 68, he is one of the most watched figures in the national marijuana struggle for one compelling reason: Assembly Bill 390, legislation he introduced in early 2009 that would make California the first state in the nation to legalize and tax recreational pot.